Hi - what's driving your net debt forecasts for May 30 - May 31. Based on what treasury has announced, I see closer to -20bn and + 60bn respectively. Curious because you have TGA spiking significantly too and not clear what's driving that.
if you go to my original article on 5/14 Ive included a spreadsheet with all the projected (from my model) deposit and withdrawal flows for the TGA. If you filter on 5/30 and 5/31 you can see whats driving it. Generally though its withholding on the 30th, and the lack of any big withdrawal flows on either day.
If you have a model that suggests otherwise Id love to hear about it. While I still have confidence in my model's projected flows on the 31st, its less than earlier days due to the technique i use to project each day.
though it actually should be 60.25 in "New Money" - 31.11 in QT = ~29b (i erroneously was looking at 6/30 issuance)
5/30 does look to be -20bn as announced this morning. When I wrote my article Sunday night I figured they would issue enough to replace maturing bills and tack on 5b more (to split what i thought would be 10b of remaining EM). That obviously did not turn out to be the case.
So now I expect they will probably do a ~35b CMB that will issue on 6/1 to use the remaining EM after 5/31.
Ill update the post to reflect. Thank you for pointing it out.
Hi - what's driving your net debt forecasts for May 30 - May 31. Based on what treasury has announced, I see closer to -20bn and + 60bn respectively. Curious because you have TGA spiking significantly too and not clear what's driving that.
if you go to my original article on 5/14 Ive included a spreadsheet with all the projected (from my model) deposit and withdrawal flows for the TGA. If you filter on 5/30 and 5/31 you can see whats driving it. Generally though its withholding on the 30th, and the lack of any big withdrawal flows on either day.
If you have a model that suggests otherwise Id love to hear about it. While I still have confidence in my model's projected flows on the 31st, its less than earlier days due to the technique i use to project each day.
5/31 comes from TBAC qtrly refunding
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TBACRecommendedFinancingTableQ22023-05032023.pdf
though it actually should be 60.25 in "New Money" - 31.11 in QT = ~29b (i erroneously was looking at 6/30 issuance)
5/30 does look to be -20bn as announced this morning. When I wrote my article Sunday night I figured they would issue enough to replace maturing bills and tack on 5b more (to split what i thought would be 10b of remaining EM). That obviously did not turn out to be the case.
So now I expect they will probably do a ~35b CMB that will issue on 6/1 to use the remaining EM after 5/31.
Ill update the post to reflect. Thank you for pointing it out.