Tax Day has come and gone. Did the IRS receive 500b less than last year?
Lol, of course not
Treasury has collected ~$107 billion MORE in taxes this year than last year through April 15th.
about $31 billion MORE than my Total Treasury Model (“TTM”) had projected through the date
and really that $107 billion is ~$177 billion when you account for the 70 billion in FY23 receipts that shifted into FY24 because of filing delays due to the California fllods in spring 2023.
But wait weren’t “reputable” publications citing “Treasury Department and IRS officials” predicting $500 billion LESS taxes collected due to DOGE cuts?
Yes about a month ago, the Washington Post published this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/22/irs-tax-revenue-loss-federal-budget/
I called out that nonsense here:
The notion that IRS cuts will result in 500b less revenue before April 15th is utter nonsense
There were a variety of posts on X this weekend referencing a Washington Post article that cited anonymous Treasury Department and IRS sources claiming the Treasury would receive 500b less in tax revenue by April 15th vs. tax receipts in 2024. Here are a few.
and in my article published daily projections from the TTM for each of the 4 major tax receipt categories (note: the TTM does not project withholding from federal workers since its not technically a cashflow into the TGA).
How did those daily projections do?
How did those dailies track vs. actual? I think decently well but you can judge for yourself (the data underlying these charts is in a spreadsheet at the bottom of this post)
I under projected Corporate tax receipts by a bit through Apr 15 but was very close both in dailies and month to date for withholding and non withheld receipts. My core premise that capital gains tax receipts would be a bumper crop this year seems to be playing out as I projected it would in January.
April Tax Receipts are set to surprise. My first call on the winter QRA
Is there actually any alpha in knowing the details of the Treasury’s upcoming Quarterly Refunding Act (“QRA”) prior to their release? Are there trades one could put on today that capitalize on a mismatch between what the market thinks Treasury will announce the Q2 borrowing need to be vs. what they actually end up announcing? I honestly dont know.
Conclusion
Perhaps over the next year there will be a significant decline in collections due DOGE cuts at the IRS, but it was never gonna be this tax season, and it wasnt. Res Ipsa Loquitor.
Spring QRA preview will be out in the next couple of days.
Thanks for Reading,
John
PS - If you are unable to afford a paid subscription or my writing/data/projections just dont bring enough value to you to justify the cost but you still want to support me and my work, please consider amplifying it as you are able (restacks, sharing with friends/colleagues who might be interested, reposts on X etc.). I believe the quality of my work speaks for itself and the more folks who see it will lead to both value in their lives and value in mine as I earn some of their patronage. Thank you and have a blessed weekend.
The data behind the charts here (you can verify the projections in my earlier piece and the actuals from the Daily Treasury Statements):
Not for Everyone. But maybe for you and your patrons?
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