TLDR X-Date very unlikely in June I’ve built a model that projects every component Treasury withdrawal and deposit for each day in May and June and included that output in this post TBAC refunding deficit projections imply an earlier July X-Date and the slight possibility of an early June X-Date
With so much at stake for so many large players, I have to wonder what the models look like at the sophisticated players ranging from the big obvious players like Bridewater, Blackrock, JPM, to the high speed traders and market makers. Are they all keeping their versions of this analysis quiet to keep their Alpha intact?
Great breakdown. Thanks for all the work you do John.
Nice work John. Really helpful to have this as a baseline going forward.
hat tip-
With so much at stake for so many large players, I have to wonder what the models look like at the sophisticated players ranging from the big obvious players like Bridewater, Blackrock, JPM, to the high speed traders and market makers. Are they all keeping their versions of this analysis quiet to keep their Alpha intact?