TLDR: TGA will drop to a level of ~175b at end of March Despite the debt ceiling, Treasury will meet their coupon issuance schedules for Q1 (56b net new to Treasury, 277b net new to public) and Q2 (70b net new to Treasury, 250b net new to public) as projected in the quarterly refunding documents and have “bonus borrowing” room to do it due to “extraordinary measures”.
Thanks this is great. Has the Treasury indicated in the past that it wants to keep to its coupon issuance schedules? Or might they issue more T-bills than you lay out above? I'm trying to project bank reserves going forward and this would have implications for a drawdown in the RRP. In 2021 I believe the Treasury was actively looking to reduce T-bills in its debt mix, but it has recently been studying a bond buyback program, which would suggest it might be leaning more towards increasing T-bills in its mix - this has me thinking to the extent there is a shortfall in net issuance it might come from coupons versus T-bills. Thanks!
Hi John,
Thanks this is great. Has the Treasury indicated in the past that it wants to keep to its coupon issuance schedules? Or might they issue more T-bills than you lay out above? I'm trying to project bank reserves going forward and this would have implications for a drawdown in the RRP. In 2021 I believe the Treasury was actively looking to reduce T-bills in its debt mix, but it has recently been studying a bond buyback program, which would suggest it might be leaning more towards increasing T-bills in its mix - this has me thinking to the extent there is a shortfall in net issuance it might come from coupons versus T-bills. Thanks!